Peter Bart and Mike Fleming Jr. worked together for two decades at Daily Variety. In this weekly Sunday column, two old friends get together and grind their axes on the movie business.
Bart: You’ve been hanging at the epicenter of pitchdom all week at San Diego Comic-Con so you have watched the masters at work (also the loser geeks). But my thoughts this week were focused on a different generation of marketing mavens — those of Jeff Blake’s generation. Blake was “let go” this week after serving as Sony’s king of marketing and distribution for a couple of decades. Another of his generation, Dan Fellman of Warners, also is set for the sidelines. These were not the Comic-Con types — they were thoughtful pros who knew how to set strategy, pick dates — and tactfully tell filmmakers when their movies were dead on arrival. They didn’t bullshit about social marketing like their young cohorts. One studio chief told me recently that all social marketing represents is a road map for spending less money while still failing to find an audience. The Comic-Con-crowd would likely disagree.
Fleming: This is movie business in Moneyball mode. We are seeing a profound change of the studio guard as they figure out how to tap a completely new generation that’s easily distracted by video games, social media and TV binge watching. Social media allows them to smell stink on a movie a mile away, something the old studio guard hid till after opening weekend. This audience insists on an open relationship with its stars, for instance. Remember when Harrison Ford sat on a few chat show couches and went back to his ranch? I’ve heard Kevin Hart has 11 million Twitter followers who follow him on the web and into theaters. On Blake: he was so beloved at the studio, that everyone formed a human chain Wednesday night, out to his car, so Blake would realized how highly everyone thought of him. First time that ever happened. I’m sure Blake was effective in his day, but I never quite figured out last summer’s distribution gaffe of releasing White House Down right after the hit clone, Olympus Has Fallen? Whether or not Roland Emmerich squawked about his movie bowing in summer, it would have been a solid hit this summer, a season that had a wide opening when Fast & Furious 7 delayed. I’ve seen far worse films do way better in the summer. But what do you mean, the “loser geeks” at Comic-Con?
Bart: You’ve logged so much Comic-Con time that you’ve become defensive about your constituency. My definition of a loser geek is someone who saves money all year to go to San Diego dressed as Wonder Woman. Or who waits two hours in line to get the autograph of a ‘star’ they’ve ever heard of. The entire agenda of Comic-Con is dedicated to the proposition that it is easy to manipulate public taste — to set up all those summer pictures that draw huge audiences the first weekend and are promptly forgotten. The social media doesn’t reach those filmgoers (i.e. adults) who prefer to see a movie in its third or fourth week when real people (i.e. adults) have actually spoken and written about it, not just tweeted an adolescent rave.
Fleming: Fighting words! Every year I groan when it’s time to come here and then I see the crowd, all shapes and sizes in every imaginable spandex get-up, covered with gore. Polite, patiently waiting in long lines. Big menacing guys, smoking hot gals in scant costumes, and over-sized men and women who know better but still shoehorn themselves into outfits that, for the benefit of others, could use a few extra yards of spandex material. Nobody judges them. Filmmakers have pegged it for me; these people might be comment section trolls in their mothers’ basements, but here they have the trusting eyes of children and this confab is pure joy to them. It puts a smile on my face to see it. l am not alone. Peter Jackson, for instance, told me he walked the convention floor Friday in his homemade Evil Jester costume (he’d have been mobbed otherwise) Guillermo del Toro spent all Wednesday making sure his convention floor exhibits for Crimson Peak and a virtual game for Pacific Rim were perfect. Yesterday I watched Thomas Tull, in jeans and a Topps Baseball Cards T-shirt, introduce a killer Hall H panel of Legendary Pictures films with big fanboy appeal, and he looked like a little boy. These guys are brilliant filmmakers and businessmen, and if they leave cynicism at the door so will I. That car accident yesterday was an anomaly because people here seem kind.
Bart: So I’ll make this confession: I’ve actually been to Comic-Con three times and have enjoyed myself. It’s like a pre-Renaissance Faire. Chaucer would have enjoyed writing about it. It’s great running into the early czars of the comic scene — Stan Lee, for example — who can’t quite believe that hundreds of millions of dollars are invested in resurrecting their fragile comic characters as film superheroes. On my last visit, one group of kids carried around old posters for Revenge of the Nerds. When I told them I was an executive producer on that movie, they looked at me as though they’d run into a superhero. Nerds was released exactly three decades ago and, while it was not exactly my finest hour, it surprisingly became an iconic mid ’80s movie. There were four Nerds movies in all and the Booger character even got a reality show out of it. So you see I owe a lot to the ComicCon crowd, even though I don’t like to admit it.
Fleming: Since you’ve thrown me a bone, I’ll acknowledge things here aren’t perfect. Some bristle about the rules after they banned Google Glasses so geeks don’t surreptitiously record presentations. I like rules, including the one that requires security to approve the armory of over-sized pseudo death weapons geeks lug around all day. A few more: I was using the men’s room and Batman steps to the urinal next to me. Prepared to be demoralized by superhero plumbing, I found it somehow more unsettling when the hero next door underwhelmed. Instead of subjecting us mere mortals to these conflicting emotions that shatter myths, and watching superheroes try to squirm out of costumes to answer nature’s call, how about a separate restroom for the fully costumed? Gleaming urinals, each with a giant sparkling white mint to aim at, like you’d imagine there would be at Justice League headquarters? And how about knighting the royalty here like they do in the UK? Ben Kingsley could have dual knight status (for his Mandarin role in Iron Man 3) but the geek god roster here would be Jackson, del Toro, Hugh Jackman, Bryan Singer, Robert Downey Jr., Stan Lee, Harrison Ford, Samuel L. Jackson, Quentin Tarantino, Edgar Wright, Josh Whedon, Christopher Nolan, George Lucas. Knight them with a light saber, whatever, and we will call them Sir in our little geek universe. Final suggestion: all over San Diego’s Gaslamp Quarter, people walk these pretty dogs in the morning, and as we eat breakfast we watch them urinate on everything that doesn’t move. Require those owners to carry water bottles and dilute the mess. Because let me tell you, it never rains here and by early afternoon, the streets of downtown San Diego smell like the reptile house at the Bronx Zoo. I’m sure the locals blame the unwashed masses at Comic-Con, but it ain’t us.
13th and 14th UPDATES, Sunday, 6:30 AM and 8 AM: As the industry waits for next weekend’s Guardians of the Galaxy to lift the summer box office blues (it will start next Thursday at 7 PM), this weekend is wrapping up: Lucy will end the 3-day with $44M for Universal, director Luc Besson and our new solo, female action star Scarlett Johansson. On a budget of what the studio claims to be $40M, this picture should turn a profit with international yet to weigh in (it doesn’t open until next weekend) and Johansson already an known entity overseas from all the Marvel movies she’s been in. Now, if Sunday moviegoing drops more than 20%, Lucy will come in around $43.5M for its debut weekend. Its second weekend could dive, given the mixed reviews and the C+ CinemaScore it received Friday night.
centage drop today), bringing the cume for this picture to $51M+, churning quite a profit for a picture the studio said was a $9M production. It dropped a whopping 65% in its second weekend. Disney’s Planes: Fire & Rescue in its second weekend will drop about 48% and depending on Sunday’s hold will make anywhere between $9M and $9.2M while Sony’s Sex Tape slid 59% in its second weekend for a $5.9M take to add to a cume of only $26.8M.
The most fun to watch (besides Lucy‘s climb) has been the films in limited release. The late Philip Seymour Hoffman’s last major film, A Most Wanted Man, stepped into the No. 10 spot (as its distributor Roadside predicted on Friday) to displace 22 Jump Street (in its 7th week and in 1,613 locations). Roadside noted that it is its second-highest opening in its 11-year history and their first Top Ten opening. The only one to open higher was The Conspirator in 2011 ($3.5M but in 11th place). Bravo. The per screen average for the film based on the John Le Carre novel of the same name will be around $7,527 on only 361 locales.
10th UPDATE, Saturday 7:15 AM: The estimates we did from last night figuring out percentages increases and decreases are pretty much on the money this morning: Lucy came in stronger than expected and ended up with a $17.1M Friday to put it on a trajectory of a $43M+ weekend. Uni is projecting a bit higher at $45M, probably thinking that the word of mouth (it received a C+ CinemaScore last night) isn’t going to hurt the picture much. It’s a very strong showing and between that and Paramount/MGM’s Hercules which is on track to make around $28.5M to $30M+, the top two pictures are sweeping up around $73M between them, 57% of the Top Ten pics in the marketplace. Hercules is playing in IMAX and 3-D, which is making up about half of its gross — 14% is coming from IMAX. Paramount announced at 8:35 AM PST that Hercules has taken in a total internationally of $11.5M as Russia leads the charge with $5.2M (35% ahead of G.I. Joe: Retaliation). It debuted in 19 territories. They also just announced that Friday business internationally was $6.2M.
Looking forward to seeing the international numbers for both pictures as Scarlett Johansson has an international imprint from all the Marvel movies she has done (Iron Man, Avengers, Captain America: The Winter Soldier) and international audiences know Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson from Fast and the Furious 6 and GI Joe: Retaliation. In fact, “The Rock” was considered the No. 1 international star last year because of it. Hercules is doing healthy business abroad so far because of it.
8th and 9th UPDATES, 9:40 PM and 10:34 PM: Lucy is having a ball (okay, I know that’s lame), but Universal Pictures certainly is. How high can she rise? Right now, all bets are on that the Scarlett Johansson sci-fi actioner should kick in over $42M for the three-day weekend for director Luc Besson — maybe even as high as $44M. The picture has enjoyed a very good Friday with about $15.4M (and that includes the almost $2.8M it grossed Thursday night). However, just got the CinemaScores in at 10:30 PM (hence the update) and it only garnered a C+ CinemaScore which is not going to bode well for word of mouth. 
In the No. 2 spot is, as expected, is Paramount/MGM’s Hercules whose estimates didn’t strengthen much throughout the day and is still expected for an $11M Friday for a weekend around $28M to $30M. Chalk it up to the star power of Dwayne ‘The Rock” Johnson. This pic got a B+ CinemaScore, the same as the other newcomer And So It Goes (see below for details on that pic).
Also in its second weekend and and expected to drop 60% is Sony’s R-rated comedy Sex Tape (see the chart for its flaccid results).
NOTEWORTHY: Some of the more interesting news this weekend at the box office is playing outside of the Top Ten. A Most Wanted Man, which is the last big film that stars the late Philip Seymour Hoffman is just shy of making it into the box office Ten, but it should gross around $2.17M this weekend for Roadside Attractions (per screen is about $6K). The Fluffy Movie, the concert movie starring Gabriel ‘I’m not fat, I’m fluffy’ Iglesias debuts at No. 17 in 432 locales and looks to make about $1.2M this weekend for a per screen of $2,779 for its distributor Open Road. It’s No. 17.
We also have Woody Allen’s Magic in the Moonlight bowing on only 17 screens, but with an estimated (and very strong) per screen average of $22,408 for the three-day. It takes the No. 26th spot at the moment. The romantic comedy, distributed by Sony Pictures Classics, stars Colin Firth, Emma Stone and Marcia Gay Harden. The expansion of Boyhood on 107 screens is also expected to sprout $14,430 per screen for filmmaker Richard Linklater which has seen positive word-of-mouth carry his baby through for three weeks. It’s at No. 15. The per screens of these two pics individually are actually higher than Lucy‘s ($12,800). Here’s the chart as it looks now and numbers/positions may change in the AM:
3rd, 4th and 5TH UPDATES, 12:50 PM, 1:10 PM, 4:31 PM: The Scarlett Johansson sci-fi actioner Lucy is strong in matinees today and is expected to pull in more than $30M (probably mid to high, something like $32M-$36M) and Hercules right under $30M (maybe $27M-$30M) as it looks now at 4:31 PM. More numbers will come as the day progresses but expecting Lucy to nab $14M-$15M tonight (includes the late-night number of $2.746M) which is up from the 12:50 estimate. and Hercules taking in around $10M-$12M tonight (includes the $2.1M late-night numbers), that has been pretty much the same all day today. Like Lucy‘s, its reviews are also mixed.
The Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson-starrer also launched yesterday in 11 international markets, including Australia and Russia, to gross an estimated $5M. The breakdown? $2.6M in Russia, which Paramount says is 40% higher than G.I. Joe: Retaliation and marks the third-best opening day of the year. The studio says its Malaysian gross of $335K is also 10% above G.I. Joe 2. In Australia, Hercules opened to No. 1 with a $590K take (and Par says it nearly doubled Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes, the #2 film in the marketplace).
The reporting on late nights took longer than expected because AMC had yet another computer glitch which interrupted box office reporting this morning. In fact, I’m hearing it was a total system failure yesterday and they are trying to fix it now with an AT&T technician on site now swapping out network equipment. It will impact all reporting if it is not up and running today. So, this is the best we got this AM: Luc Besson’s Lucy (UNI) bowed last night at 8 PM to $2.746M and Hercules which stars Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson and was directed by Brett Ratner opened to $2.1M in late nights that began at 7 PM on 2,063 locations for Paramount/MGM. Given the AMC glitch, these are
estimates.
Lucy is not only on track to win the weekend at the box office but is also delivering the most social engagement activity — above Hercules, the Rob Reiner-directed And So it Goes (not surprisingly) as well as The Purge: Anarchy (in its second weekend) and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. Interestingly, a parody video created by YouTube superstar Ryan Higa (who has over 12M subscribers) pulled in 2.37M views as of this morning, according to RelishMix. That parody is also linking to the official trailer so is driving traffic into that. Lucy stars Scarlett Johansson and Morgan Freeman, the latter of which has 14M fans on FB, so his fans are engaging. That’s a lot of eyes.
It’ll take an easy No. 1 though over the other newcomers Hercules (PAR/MGM) and And So It Goes (which stars Michael Douglas and Diane Keaton in this comedic turn from Clarius). The other movie opening is comedian Gabriel ‘Fluffy’ Iglesias’ concert film Fluffy from Open Road in about 400 theaters. So there’s the group.
And So It Goes from director Rob Reiner will have to be happy with around $4M, according to how the tracking looks this AM. Older audience. That will bow tomorrow night in 1,762 locations. The overall business is kinda hurting right now. Everyone is looking to next weekend when Disney/Marvel’s Guardians Of The Galaxy opens.
